Last Updated on September 16, 2022
When does Lake George freeze? A variety of factors influence the freezing process, including rising water temperatures. This article will discuss ice-in dates, the impacts of rising water temperatures, and future projections of the lake’s frozen state. Ultimately, the decision is yours, but we hope these articles will provide you with useful information. Once you have read them, you’ll know exactly when to head out to enjoy the beauty of the frozen lake.
Ice-in dates
The Lake George area has experienced several ice-in and ice-out dates over the years. Ice-in dates range from Dec. 19 to Feb. 26. In fact, the 2017 ice-in date was the earliest on record, with the latest being Feb. 29, 1932. Since 1950, ice-in dates have averaged around 70 percent. Ice-in dates are largely dependent on wind patterns, which can bring warmer water to the surface or rapidly cool surface ice.
The Darrin Fresh Water Institute has been tracking ice-in dates for Lake George since 2004. Before that, the Warren County Department of Public Works maintained statistics. Today, Lake George has its first ice-in date since 2004, and the Darrin Fresh Water Institute has been tracking this data since 2004. In addition to the Darrin Fresh Water Institute, the Lake George Area Chamber of Commerce has also begun tracking ice-in dates for the area.
The recent warmer weather has made it difficult to hold many winter events in the area. Attractions like Ice Castles at Charles R. Wood Park are scheduled to close for the second weekend in a row due to two days with temperatures above freezing. And the future of the Ice Steamboat Company is unclear, either. It is possible that other attractions will stay open, but there is no guarantee. If your schedule doesn’t include the weekends, consider another activity.
The Winter Carnival has always been a family affair, and this year will be no exception. Activities for all ages will take place. Arts & crafts, scavenger hunts, snow hockey, and puppet theaters are just a few of the events planned. And if the lake doesn’t freeze over, the Winter Carnival Committee can relocate the events or create new ones. It’s been one of the most successful weekends in Lake George Winter Carnival history.
Predicting complete ice coverage
IBM researchers have predicted a record high likelihood of Lake George ice cover this winter. The researchers worked from 1974 to 2015 to feed data into their program, which generated graphs showing the probability of Lake George being covered in ice during those two time periods. In the first graph, the program predicts whether Lake George will be frozen or not, but it’s not perfect. There is room for improvement, though.
The first significant ice coverage usually occurs in December, but it can be earlier or later. The Great Lakes have high heat content, so ice must be covered for a prolonged period of time to freeze. You can check the lake’s ice cover status on NOAA’s website. It will tell you whether the lake will be completely covered or if it will have a thin layer of ice.
The Jefferson Project is using its scientific database on Lake George to tackle systemic problems such as harmful algal blooms and invasive species. The organization combines modeling, monitoring, and experimentation in an integrated approach to develop solutions to these and other fresh water ecosystem problems. They hope to use their database to create a blueprint for protecting other fresh water bodies. That way, future generations can enjoy the benefits of Lake George’s water and ice coverage.
Although it’s possible to forecast when the lake freezes, it’s much more complex than tracking the air temperature. One project, known as The Jefferson Project, is working with IBM and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute to monitor the lake and operate a network of survey stations across it. This data is used for a variety of different things, but it is useful for estimating when the blue surface of the water will turn into hard ice.
The George Ashton method, developed in 1989, is an excellent general-purpose ice growth forecast. The Swedish method, developed by Martin Ajne, uses a combination of air temperature, wind speed, and radiational cooling. The Swedish method is most accurate for predicting ice growth in thin ice, but it’s also handy for predicting ice growth over night. This method is discussed near the end of this article.
Impacts of rising water temperatures
Increasing water temperatures have a significant impact on when Lake George freezes. The study shows that water temperatures in the North Basin of Lake George increased 0.051 C per year, a rate within the range of warming observed in other lakes in the region and around the world. Water temperatures between the tops of the North and South basins tended to increase at similar rates. The South Basin showed a slightly higher increase, with warming occurring most often in June.
While predicting the timing of the Lake George freezing season will be a complex process, there are several important findings that have implications for the future of the Lake. For example, increased groundwater input could explain why the North Basin has been warming more than the South. Changing meteorological conditions may enhance thermal absorption and attenuate the warming effect of groundwater, which can contribute around 18% of Lake George’s volume.
Increasing surface water temperatures in the Great Lakes also have significant impacts on when Lake George freezes. From 1979 to 2006, the average lake surface temperature in the Great Lakes increased 4.4 degrees Fahrenheit (F). By 2050, water temperatures could rise as much as 7degF. This warming is largely due to reduced ice cover and increased evaporation, increasing the amount of lake-effect snow in the region.
The observed increase in surface water temperature in Lake George may already be affecting the biotic and abiotic factors that are temperature dependent. Because the summer temperatures in Lake George are near 25 C, a shift towards cyanobacteria may be occurring. However, biotic data are scarce for different questions, and lack of continuity prevents valid comparisons. In the meantime, increasing water temperatures present a number of threats to water resources and their ecosystems, and understanding how climate change may affect them is crucial for mitigation efforts.
Assuming that a 2deg Celsius rise is achievable, then the median ice-on date would probably be later than the previous year. Moreover, lakes with later ice-on dates were found to have a greater change in median ice-off days. But it would be difficult to find out if the current trend holds for the future of annual lake ice cover. For this, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions would be necessary.
Future projections of lake george freeze
To better understand when Lake George will freeze, we need to know how long it will take. While there is no one definite answer, climate change is a key contributor. If global warming continues to raise the average global temperature, regular ice in Lake George could be a thing of the past. However, climate change scenarios show that the lake will only be partially frozen between 2040 and 2060. And in 2016, ice only briefly covered Lake George.
The Warren County Department of Public Works keeps records of when the lake freezes, and the last time it froze was in winter 1907-1908. The records are not complete, but are indicative of the number of times Lake George has frozen since that time. The Lake George Association also keeps records of ice-in and ice-out dates and delved into how often the lake freezes over. For now, the ice is in and out in November and December.
Climate change also affects the flora and fauna in the area. The average temperature will increase faster than the species can adapt, causing them to become more abundant or rare. Because of this, efforts will need to be made to monitor the changes in the region. Changing climate also opens the door for invasive species such as parasites that carry Lyme disease. Invasive species will also grow in number and can cause damage to native wildlife.
Despite these limitations, researchers are pleased with the results of their simulations of Lake George’s future. The computer model used is based on data collected by sensors, which will be fed into a scenario engine. This engine predicts what the lake will look like in the future based on these data. As the computer’s learning progresses, the model will be better able to project future changes in the lake.
Climate change will alter Lake George’s suitability for different species. Because of increasing temperatures, some species that were once abundant in Lake George will be displaced by those from other, warmer climates. This will not only create instability in the lake’s ecosystem, but will also open the door for invasive species. By monitoring the changes and adapting to them, we can prevent this from happening. This way, we can promote native species and minimize the impacts of climate change on our lake.
About The Author
Fernánda Esteban is a food fanatic. She can't go more than a few hours without eating, and she loves trying new foods from all over the world. Her friends know that they can always count on her for a good conversation, and she's an animal lover who will never turn down an opportunity to pet a dog or cat. Fernánda also enjoys learning about random facts, and she's a social media practitioner who loves to share what she knows with others.